Lifespan Reserverisk Reserverisk
Bitcoin
Reserve Risk quantifies long-term holder confidence relative to price, weighing the incentive to sell against the conviction to hold.
Why it matters
It highlights periods when holder conviction is strong yet price is low — historically favourable accumulation windows.
How it is built
Price is divided by the HODL Bank, the cumulative opportunity cost long-term holders forgo by continuing to hold rather than sell.
What to watch
Low Reserve Risk marks deep-value, high-conviction zones with strong long-term risk/reward, while elevated readings flag conviction being distributed into strength.