Reserve Risk
Bitcoin
Reserve Risk quantifies the confidence of long-term holders relative to the price, comparing the incentive to sell against the conviction to hold.
Why it matters
It identifies attractive risk/reward zones for accumulation, when holder conviction is high but price is low.
How it is built
Price is divided by HODL Bank — the accumulated opportunity cost that holders forgo by not selling — so low readings mean strong conviction at low prices.
What to watch
Historically, very low Reserve Risk (deep-value zone) has marked outstanding long-term buying opportunities, while high readings warn that conviction is being spent into rising prices near tops.
Measured on this chain
Reserve Risk on Bitcoin last read 0.001336 on Sep 24, 2026, a change of +5.28% over 30 days, ranging from 0.0009782 (Jun 30, 2026) to 0.00279 (Dec 16, 2024).
- Latest reading
- 0.001336
- Sep 24, 2026
- Change
- 1d -0.06%
- 30d +5.28%
- 90d +33.06%
- 1y -41.79%
- Range
- Low 0.0009782·Jun 30, 2026
- High 0.00279·Dec 16, 2024
- Coverage
- Jul 17, 2024 — Sep 24, 2026
- 800 readings
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | 0.001224 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 0.001248 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | 0.001204 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 0.00121 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 0.001215 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 0.001286 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | 0.001291 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | 0.001289 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 0.001373 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 0.001366 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | 0.001337 |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 0.001336 |
Read from our own stored series, not quoted from a page.