Terminal Price
Bitcoin
Terminal Price is a top-of-cycle valuation model built from coin lifespan rather than from price history, marking the level at which past bull markets have exhausted themselves.
Why it matters
It gives an upper reference that moves with actual coin turnover, so the ceiling it draws rises as the network grows instead of staying anchored to an earlier cycle's high.
How it is built
Transferred Price — the realized value of coins weighted by how long they sat still — multiplied by twenty-one, the supply cap in millions.
What to watch
Price has touched or briefly exceeded this line near the peak of every completed cycle and has spent the remainder of each cycle beneath it, which makes proximity to it a statement about how much of the move is already behind the market.